"Not Having a Ray Tracing GPU in 2019 is Just Crazy!" - Nvidia CEO

Discussion in 'Gaming (Software and Graphics Cards)' started by hmscott, Aug 17, 2019.

  1. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    tl;dr - Jensen put his foot in his mouth again spewing BS about RTX, Nvidia's Researcher Morgan McGuire at SIGGRAPH 2019 stepped out of ranks and predicted the FIRST ray-tracing only game won't arrive until 2023 - leaving todays RTX GPU's out of the running - and Assetto Corsa Competizione Dumps NVIDIA RTX.

    Played out in painful slow motion, RTX is going nowhere fast - and the "early supporters" are reneging on their commitment to deliver RTX features - releasing without RTX features and with no plan to ever provide RTX features. It's going to be many years, and many generations of GPU's before 100% full-time ray-tracing in games will be seen.

    Just ask Nvidia's researcher Morgan McGuire on Twitter:
    Morgan McGiuire #1.jpg

    "Morgan McGuire, one of Nvidia’s top researchers, took to Twitter earlier this week to predict that consumers can expect to see the first must-have game that requires ray tracing by the year 2023.

    The tweet also included a link to publicly available presentation slides by other Nvidia scientists for this year’s Siggraph computer graphics conference. Most tantalizingly, the tweet featured an image of a single from McGuire’s own presentation, “From Raster to Rays in Games,” included among those of his Nvidia colleagues on the linked Siggraph page."

    Oh, it looks like [Nvidia?] took down Morgan McGuire's twitter post...how embarrassing for them...here is the text of the tweet as quoted in the video included below:
    Morgan McGiuire Quote.jpg
    And, Scott Herkelman of AMD agrees:
    Scott Herkelman Responds to Morgan McGuire.jpg
    Nvidia RTX GPU's of today won't even be useful for the ray-tracing only game play Morgan McGuire predicts to arrive by 2023. By 2023 powerful enough GPU's and games optimized to run on those new far more powerful GPU's will begin to be available, years from now.

    Nvidia's top engineer says here in 2019 that it will be 2023 before RTX will be useful as a ray-tracing only game, and I think he is being wildly optimistic - that's only 2 generations of GPU's away and software developers are already burned out on providing useless RTX feature's - useless compared to spending resources on actual gameplay.

    The first top-tier ray tracing-only game will land in 2023, Nvidia guru says
    By Jonathan Terrasi — Posted on July 30, 2019 2:23PM PST
    https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/nvidia-scientist-predicts-first-aaa-ray-tracing-game-2023/

    "In practice, however, it is possible to execute a play to cement dominance over a new format too early. AMD’s reluctance to chart a coherent long-term ray tracing strategy may be a sign that Nvidia has initiated just such a premature gambit, especially considering how ruthless and calculated AMD has been as of late — if AMD isn’t concerned about ray tracing, maybe Nvidia is getting ahead of itself."

    Another game developer refuses to waste time on RTX BS, and ships without it, abandoning the sinking ship of RTX:

    Assetto Corsa Competizione Dumps NVIDIA RTX
    by btarunr Friday, August 16th 2019, 01:25 Discuss (59 Comments)
    https://www.techpowerup.com/258340/assetto-corsa-competizione-dumps-nvidia-rtx#comments

    "Assetto Corsa Competizione, the big AAA race simulator slated for a September release, will lack support for NVIDIA RTX real-time raytracing technology, not just at launch, but even the foreseeable future. The Italian game studio Kunos Simulazioni in response to a specific question on the Steam Community forums confirmed that the game will not receive NVIDIA RTX support.

    "Our priority is to improve, optimize, and evolve all aspects of ACC. If after our long list of priorities the level of optimization of the title, and the maturity of the technology, permits a full blown implementation of RTX, we will gladly explore the possibility, but as of now there is no reason to steal development resources and time for a very low frame rate implementation," said the developer, in response to a question about NVIDIA RTX support at launch.

    This is significant, as Assetto Corsa Competizione was one of the posterboys of RTX, and featured in the very first list by NVIDIA, of RTX-ready games under development."

    Vya Domus - "The gist of all this is that developers are starting to realize that "hey this is a lot work and we have zero incentive to do it". That's all."

    Whether the rest of the early games promising RTX support even go so far as to admit this, none of them want to waste time, money, resource on RTX, as RTX offers their customers no real value - no improvement in game play - and developers know that's what gamers want to buy - gameplay first, shiny RTX nonsense dead last or not at all.

    "Not Having a Ray Tracing GPU in 2019 is Just Crazy!" - Nvidia CEO
    Boot Sequence
    Published on Aug 16, 2019
    Ahh, Real-time Ray tracing. The most revolutionary tech to come to pc gaming since the move to 3d graphics. Dare I say it, its an even bigger deal than 3d. I mean how dare you tell me that this, doesn’t look miles better than this. You have Ray-traced shadows, global illumination, and even reflections. On top of that, it just works. Seriously, at this point, it’s a foregone conclusion that if you’re going to buy a new graphics card, it’s going to last you two, three, four years, and to not have ray tracing is just crazy.”

    And scene. I don’t believe a word of what I just said, but , that last bit there, the “At this point, it’s a foregone conclusion that if you’re going to buy a new graphics card, it’s going to last you a long time and to not have ray tracing is just crazy.” is a direct quote from Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang during their Q&A session for their earnings call.

    I mean how gullible does the company think gamers are[?] Sure, Ray tracing adds a new layer to the gaming world and it’s appreciable, but to say that “in 2019 it's crazy not to have a hardware accelerated real time ray tracing card” is the worst marketing ploy I've ever seen. Especially when the market has a completely different focus right now.

    We don't need ray tracing, we need affordable high refresh rate monitors to go with our affordable GPU's that can push these frame rates.

    The worst part is that one of Nvidia’s top researcher even tweeted that consumers can expect to see the first game to require ray tracing in 2023. That’s a long way away and AMD’s Scott Herkelman even agreed. By then, real time ray tracing will even have evolved with more things being raytraced on the scene making cards like the current super line obsolete in that department. The really odd thing is that this tweet from the researcher is no longer available. Almost like a company wanted to shut him up.
    —————————————————————————————————
    TODAY'S DOSE OF TECH NEWS SOURCES
    —————————————————————————————————
    Nvidia CEO Quote : https://bit.ly/2YTh028
    Asseto Corsa not supporting RTX : https://bit.ly/2Naiden
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2019
  2. TheReciever

    TheReciever D! For Dragon!

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    And here I thought I was crazy for wanting more AMD in laptops.
     
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  3. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Nvidia has another terrible quarter, with the Nvidia bulls clutching at straws, all numbers down tremendously year over year, I'll update with a full list of numbers later, here's a short snippet:
    Nvidia 2019 2nd Quarterly Financials - looking bad willis....JPG

    Nvidia got a small upblip by the bulls from the earnings call, but Nvidia's still way down:
    Nvidia down overall the last year - small upblip is nothing.JPG

    From the same earnings call Jensen made that silly statement trying to push the RTX GPU's - that aren't selling - but what about all of the new Nvidia non-RTX GPU's? Apparently Jensen thinks those are a bad buy / investment for the future...

    Nvidia's CEO calls it "crazy" to buy a GPU without raytracing
    Erm... what about the GTX Turing series?
    Published: 16th August 2019 | Source: Nvidia | Author: Mark Campbell
    https://www.overclock3d.net/news/gp...ls_it_crazy_to_buy_a_gpu_without_raytracing/1

    "Nvidia's CEO calls it "crazy" to buy a GPU without raytracing
    During the company's Q2 FY2020 Financials webcast, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has stated that it's "crazy" to purchase a new graphics card that lacks support for raytracing.

    Here's the full quote; "At this point, it’s a foregone conclusion that if you’re going to buy a new graphics card, it’s going to last you two, three, four years, and to not have ray tracing is just crazy."

    While Jensen's statement makes sense from a futureproofing perspective, it doesn't make sense when you look at Nvidia's current product lineup. Within the past three months, Nvidia has released their GTX 1660 Ti, GTX 1660 and GTX 1650 graphics cards, all of which lack support for RTX raytracing. Yes, Nvidia has, in a roundabout way, said that it is "crazy" to purchase three of its most recent graphics cards.

    With his statement, Jensen is targetting AMD's Radeon RX 5700 series of graphics cards, which currently lack support for hardware-accelerated raytracing. These graphics cards compete with the Geforce RTX and Geforce RTX Super series, all of which support hardware-accelerated raytracing
    (Jensen doesn't recommend the GTX 1660 Ti)"

    AngryGoldfish - "Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but it sounds like he's trying to get people to buy big Turing because of lack lustre sales and is hoping consumers will not actually 'keep their graphics card for four years' and will instead replace said 2080/2080Ti with a new and shiny one in 2020 or 2021".

    Bridges - "You'd be crazy to invest in a proprietary, poorly supported, overpriced implementation of ray-tracing too. Given that both of the next consoles are all AMD and will support ray-tracing to some degree, the idea that people are going to be playing ray-traced games on their RTX 2070 four years from now is pretty funny."

    Source:
    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang calls it "crazy" to buy a GPU without raytracing.
    Thread starter IbizaPocholo Start date Yesterday at 9:37 PM
    https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nvid...razy-to-buy-a-gpu-without-raytracing.1497937/

    CRON - "I played Metro Exodus with raytracing enabled and not once during my playthrough did I notice it."

    lol - Jensen Huang calls “crazy” buying a video card without ray tracing
    Discussion in 'The Guru's Pub' started by LIGuitar77, Aug 17, 2019 at 1:29 PM.
    https://forums.guru3d.com/threads/lol-jensen-huang-calls-“crazy”-buying-a-video-card-without-ray-tracing.428077/

    -Tj- "Yeah he saw it doesn't sell so good, so had to make some silly statements..."

    SerotoNiN - "Considering this claim of buying a gpu for the next 2-4 years...ray tracing is so abysmal just in frame rates right now that it would be crazy to buy an RTX card now and think it will run games 2-4 years out. Especially with a new generation of consoles with more demanding graphics a year away. What a stupid comment by a petty man. I don't mind nvidia as a product, but every time they open their mouth, it makes me want to go full on AMD next upgrade. And I just might."
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2019
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  4. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Coreteks takes a realistic look at why Nvidia released a such a bad product: RTX...going back as far as 3dfx...

    The FUTURE of Graphics
    Nov 19, 2019
    Coreteks


    Aggnog1 week ago
    "When your whole life flashes before your eyes, how much of it do you want to not have ray tracing?"

    TheSaipher 1 day ago
    "in 2019 we dont have 4k at 144hz but hey RTX is here ...."

    friedkangaroo 1 week ago
    "2080ti here i never used rt in any games i play, wow six games hahaha"
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  5. thegreatsquare

    thegreatsquare Notebook Deity

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    Not as crazy as being the sucker who falls for Nvidia's plea to help clear out their old overstock.

    I'd really like to wait until Hopper, timing wise it will be the first architecture launch after the new-gen console releases and that's the sweetest sweet spot IMO. But while the MCM design isn't new in general, a company's implementation of any new design is often a bit conservative. Plus there could be an Ampere-Super stretching out the timeline. If I chose to go with a midrange Ampere laptop, then another midrange ~2024, that could be smart...

    ...buying 1st gen RTX now isn't smart at all.
     
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  6. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Fun, and Smart - mixed with desire - don't always mix. If there isn't anything else out there, like in laptops especially or with Black Friday sales configurations - there's little alternative of choice available; that's unfortunately what we are faced with today (and tomorrow).

    That's why I recommend going for the non-Nvidia / Intel option if you have the choice, because there are still areas where we can't avoid them. But, don't sweat it if you can't find that choice when you need what you need. Fun's fun.

    @coreteks talks about "Dark Silicon" - the wasted silicon space of RTX features between us and what we need - the gaming engine we have relied on for so long. Nvidia screwed us over - and Nvidia screwed themselves over in 2019, let's hope they wise up in 2020 before we loose them as a competitor.

    Hopefully Nvidia will give up the RTX farce in 2020 with the new 3000 series, stupid is as stupid does though, Nvidia will probably double down on RTX.

    Nvidia wasting another $B on RTX instead, priceless.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2019
  7. Kevin

    Kevin Egregious

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    You crusade against ray-tracing is getting a bit weird.

    You are going to be massively disappointed if you think it is going anywhere, as AMD's high-end RDNA2 GPUs are 100% shipping with dedicated ray-tracing hardware in 2020, and the 2020 Playstation 5 and Xbox releases are as well. You can guarantee that every 1sy-party Sony and Microsoft game will showcase the technology, and 3rd-party devs will follow along to not be left behind.

    The amount of games releasing with ray-tracing support is about to explode in a nuclear fashion, whether you like it or not.

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. hertzian56

    hertzian56 Notebook Geek

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    Yeah that's a stupid comment when it comes to 2019, totally unnecessary atm. Eventually if all the manufs put it in there it won't really be a marketing gimmick that it is now, more a commodity in a vg sense. I've had conversations with a few CEO's of mid size manuf companies and they're total salesmen Machiavellians, seeing(high margin) fantasy and believing it and imposing it on others one way or another by hook or crook. Those types are the ones who get promoted by those like them above. But megcorps have whole wings of programming/brainwashing aka marketing/promotions depts to go out and convince the naive, ignorant and plain stupid that this is "how it is" and how great it all is, mind control. If RT kills performance afa fps and other settings it's a farce in 2019, seems to be the case. It's all just about selling the latest thing, not about what is best for your case. For average computer use a 8 year old cpu/gpu would be fine, gaming a different story if you want the latest games but seriously there's an avalanche of games in the "old" or "low spec" category that would keep you busy for years.
     
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  9. hfm

    hfm Notebook Prophet

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    "Killing FPS" still equates to plenty playable on a lot of titles. Even my lowly 2070 in an eGPU can manage to be just fine on Metro: Exodus with RTX on. This is pretty good for 1st gen.

    Don't mistake this for me thinking every game has to have RT to be good, but it can definitely make an already great game better. You still have the option of turning it off, I just don't get the hate. It's here to stay and will just be a default feature in pretty much every GPU going forward. Well, all but the most budget ones anyway. And if you don't like it, then go into the game options and disable it.
     
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  10. hertzian56

    hertzian56 Notebook Geek

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    well yeah I'm not disagreeing with you, but if someone purposely sold a perfectly fine gpu specifically to get an RT one it's a waste, but many people are early adopters just because and have the money then fine. I'm thinking of getting rich selling bridges with RGB LEDs and large rgb fans lol
    Getting back to the point though, RT totally unnecessary in 2019 and by the time the manufs all put it in all their products it's a moot point anyways. Apart from FPS I don't think anyone can claim RT isn't a performance hit for current cards and games. I turn off AA in most games I play bc it's a performance hit that I don't notice much anyways, rather have better fps and I assure you it does improve FPS. Higher resolutions don't even need AA but I'm on 1080p or a little lower and fine, doesn't make the games I enjoy less fun.
     
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