Is laptops innovation dead at the moment

Discussion in 'Hardware Components and Aftermarket Upgrades' started by cooldex, Apr 30, 2019.

  1. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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    Yeah, just like I thought. Nothing to see here folks, let's find some more random articles from nobody's that support our undefendable position, or, just keep moving along.

    At least @ole!!! is being honest, I'm just talking to deaf ears. :)

    Btw, I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else to change your mind. Just trying to expand it a little. :)

    The points I've made stand and the walls of text from random people on the web do not change anything.

    AMD started three years ago by pushing 'more cores'. Intel was forced to show they were trying to keep up to that mantra while battling chaos from internal and external forces. In the end, Intel got its focus back and the products they have made available during this dark period prove it as do the balance sheets.

    Today, AMD is continuing to push 'more cores' along with (finally) better efficiency vs. Intel for the mobile sectors. All accounts though (from their own sources, please see my previous posts for links) show that increased performance vs. Intel (which is still holding the performance crown during all the past battles) may not be as much as should be expected. Of course, the AMD faithful gloss over those points I've made.

    Intel, on the other hand, has emerged from their battles a little bit scathed, a little bit more humbled, and with a new and deeper understanding of what they need to execute on next. Their latest plans (again, please see my recent posts for links) are solid and show them executing them with newfound confidence (isn't it great when we find our way back to the path again).

    From all the known facts from both sides, not merely mangled rumors and wishes, Intel will continue its dominance for the foreseeable future (yeah; and that includes the future that AMD just dropped their new TR from the public view just recently).

    As I've said before, even without all the innovation and new projects going exactly as Intel would like, they are still on very stable ground for the time being.

    Let's wait for each of them to have their swing for the fence in this crucial year ahead and see if the order of tech will be re-arranged. :)
     
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  2. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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    Once again, instead of trying to address my points made, you just dismiss and diminish ACTUAL analysis of the situation, including ignoring citations from reputable sources. Speaks to your character.

    Same goes by saying Intel holds the performance crown when that is not exactly true. They will likely barely hold onto the single thread performance crown, but get demolished in multi-threaded workloads. But you ALWAYS seem to miss that point.

    Moreover, what kept Intel's balance sheet looking good was that due to the problem with their process, they had to keep too many products on 14nm. So they prioritized the high margin products over the low margin products. They then charged obscene pricing on those products. That worked for awhile because demand was so high for replacing the lost processing capacity from the fixes to Spectre and Meltdown, among other vulnerabilities, that many companies had to scale out their deployments to make up for the lost processing power.

    What happens when Intel's new Cascade-SP CPU costs $18,000 (an increase of about $8,000 over their prior flagship costing $10,000), while AMD comes in with a CPU likely to cost $6000-8000, but comes with 64-cores rather than their prior 32-core chips while offering similar frequencies? I'll tell you, the frontier contract from Cray, the contract with the company that runs the LHC, etc. Now, if AMD can do lower than $6000 on their flagship, which, it should be mentioned that Intel's CPU uses nearly double the power and basically would need water cooling in a server, Intel is going to be faced with the problem of now competing on price, and the low yields on 10nm, the production capacity issues for 14nm which will continue at minimum into or through Q3 2019, and a price war which will cause Intel's margins to shrink, you wind up in a situation where your argument that Intel is still profitable is on shaky ground. They have already revised down their revenues significantly, and that is BEFORE the release of Zen 2. If, as I explained above on the cost per die analysis, AMD does hit those price targets, or is anywhere close to it, Intel gets hit with a new wave of pain.

    As to the TR rumor, that dropping from Q4 release was quickly followed with the rumor of Zen 3 being released in Q1 of 2020 on the server side, which begs the question if AMD plans on releasing TR alongside the Zen 3 Epycs, which would make an extra 3 month wait or less COMPLETELY worth it, as you would go from Zen+ to Zen 3 with 2 years of architectural updates. Or, they could get rid of the Ryzen TR and switch the workstation chips into overclockable, speed optimized (like the 7371) 1P chips with the full feature sets of an Epyc for $300-600 more than TR cost (which is currently the approx on cost of Epyc over TR) with 8-channel memory, 128-160 PCIe 4.0 or 5.0 lanes, etc. So do you really want to use that as an example? That also would be able to compete with the 6-channel Xeon 28 core beast, but with better I/O and more memory bandwidth (at that core count, memory bandwidth is often more important than the memory latency for many uses).

    But you are correct. Let's let the batters get up and swing. It is a mere matter of a couple weeks.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
  3. Papusan

    Papusan JOKEBOOK's Sucks! Dont waste your $$$ on FILTHY

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    Did you put the Mainstream into the bag as well? How is the 2700x performance vs. 9900K? And how much more performance will you get from AMD's 6 cores 2600x model vs. Intel's? Since you talk about in multi-threaded workloads we can start there. Thanks

    I expect @tilleroftheearth talk about Mainstream.

    Regarding HEDT. If Amd's 32 cores would struggle beat an 28 cores Intel, <I mean something has to be wrong>. Because it is quite natural that 15% more cores should perform better.

    + This is an laptop thread:oops: The title say *Is laptops innovation dead at the moment*.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  4. Mr. Fox

    Mr. Fox Undefiled BGA-Hating Elitist

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    Sometimes the fighter that lands the hardest punch or draws first blood catches the attention of the raging crowd, but that pisses off his opponent and he may ultimately end up going down in a TKO after his opponent regains his senses. For now I am sticking with Intel and NVIDA, but I am open to the idea of kicking them to the curb if AMD pulls a rabbit from their magic hat, assuming that Intel and NVIDIA do not respond with a death punch. Maybe we will see some long overdue evidence that "for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction" begin to play out over and over again on the PC tech stage. And, that's the thing... AMD went for a very long time with no horse in the either race (CPU and GPU) and it's nice to see a real demonstration that they are not asleep at the wheel regardless of who ultimately emerges victorious. The winner will still be the one that gets my money, but who can hate the competition? The analysis and speculation kind of bores me though, and I'd rather just wait and see how it turns out. Everyone watching a fight wins and bitter rivalry is welcomed, especially in PC technology.

     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  5. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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    Very true. But to accomplish this fight, AMD took the money it was using to barely keep up with Nvidia and poured it over into the fight with Intel. Within a short time, that fight heated up, although we all have seen how that cost them going against Nvidia (and the resulting price hikes from Nvidia due to lack of competition, which remarkably resembles Intel's recent price hikes with competition).

    Either way, one thing we all can appreciate is that with the extra revenue FINALLY making AMD profitable (literally, until past quarter or two, they still were losing money), AMD is doing good work investing in further R&D. But, they haven't gotten enough, even with nearly quadrupling their server market share, to make a decent graphics card. See this from AdoredTV
    upload_2019-5-13_12-45-17.png


    Although everything, if priced right, will sell. So expect more pain on that front and we can hope Intel's new graphics cards can help (but remember, Raja is running the shop, which did have a hand in Vega and Navi, although there are many reasons Vega sucked it up).

    But the next couple years will be interesting.
     
  6. Papusan

    Papusan JOKEBOOK's Sucks! Dont waste your $$$ on FILTHY

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    Talk about pulls a rabbit from their magic hat...:vbbiggrin:
    AMD Readies Radeon RX 640, an RX 550X Re-brand
     
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  7. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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    So, for 2700X vs 9900K, you currently have Intel winning by 22% in productivity and 11% in gaming, while charging a 60%, approximately, premium for that performance. Moreover, a 65W 8-core, set to be released shortly, already was shown with equal performance on cinebench only months ago (I'll return to that in a minute). As to the 8700K and 8086K, it was still a fair amount. We shall revisit that in 7 weeks.

    As to HEDT, that is likely due to not having direct memory channels to two of the four dies, which Intel has 6-channels of memory helping with the bandwidth per core, along with the IPC deficit of about 3-4%, the frequency deficit of a couple hundred MHz, and the SMT being a better implementation by AMD, but not making up for the other deficits.

    Now, let's discuss how this fits into laptops. Intel is starting to make 14nm chips up to 8-cores for laptops, which do still have a single core frequency of 5GHz, but an all core frequency that is WAY lower than the desktop parts.

    AMD showed with the 65W chip that they can give the performance in a power limited envelope. Once those chips are within a 45W envelope, Zen 2 will actually force Intel to work harder, whether through IPC or frequency changes, to increase the performance of their mobile chips.

    For DTR systems, those use desktop mainstream chips, as no mfr. will try like they did for the P570WM to squeeze an HEDT into a mobile form factor. But, if they can find a way to support the 135W 16-core, I think the few that need it would handsomely pay for that (even if I think that is a pipe dream).

    Meanwhile, this means AMD will finally, starting as soon as they get their APU and mobile lineup out, which is a couple quarters away, be able to compete with Intel on the higher powered CPU in laptop front, excluding DTR systems, although with that 65W chip, they may be competing on the DTR front as well before too long.


    For investment into R&D, you won't see the fruits for 3-5 years, which is the same as for the CPU side.

    Navi was a product that was developed in conjunction with Sony. Vega was in conjunction with Apple. What comes next? Well you have the next-gen developed with Microsoft with Arcturus being a specific chip in that lineup, potentially. You have the GPU that will be developed from the money received from the Frontier deal with Cray for the 1.5 Exaflop system deliverable in 2021, plus the cash coming from Shasta from Cray, deliverable in 2020, etc.

    So, what started development in 2017, when Ryzen dropped and AMD started pouring more into R&D, puts the fruits around 2021-22. That is something to remember.
     
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  8. Support.3@XOTIC PC

    Support.3@XOTIC PC Company Representative

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    I think all this is because we got onto putting HEDT processors in laptops.
     
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  9. Papusan

    Papusan JOKEBOOK's Sucks! Dont waste your $$$ on FILTHY

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    Still, many years ago since we had HEDT processors in laptops:D

    Although Intel branding its juicy $600 BGA chips i9 it's far from being an HEDT. Not even close:)
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2019
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  10. ole!!!

    ole!!! Notebook Prophet

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    im assuming you're talking about me and my dismissive non-analysis. i am only trying to analyze tsmc's 7nm performance gain will have effect on the zen2 arch. the power effiency is already shown, we have data from vega to radeon 7 imo those are decent data to go by and as for value/margin, i dont care about any of that because we know AMD will bring value period.

    for intel's 10nm, they could be denser than TSMC's 7nm and ultimately it still comes down to real world performance. so far anything i have to go by is their failed plan by paying lenovo to have 10nm cpus with corrupted iGPU disabled in their machine. anandtech tested the efficiency and its hardly any improvement. i know thats from at least a year ago so maybe the new 10nm has improved, too little data to go by, so i'll stick to assuming zen2 will obliterate intel.
     
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