Intel's upcoming 10nm and beyond

Discussion in 'Hardware Components and Aftermarket Upgrades' started by ajc9988, Apr 25, 2019.

  1. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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  2. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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  3. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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  4. Papusan

    Papusan JOKEBOOK's Sucks! Dont waste your $$$ on FILTHY

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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
  5. bennyg

    bennyg Notebook Virtuoso

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    I actually think that leaked road map is too bad it's unbelievable.

    That it starts at Q12018 is a bit fishy too. It might be from 2017 or a worst case scenario based on the capability of their old broken 10nm before that was all but officially canned.

    It'd mean Intel's been misleading on the market on their revised 10nm "not+" progress if we get nothing but low power dual and quad core laptop and tablet chips by the end of 2021. Even the new CEO would be implicating himself in the continuation of the lie, when upper management changeover provides the single best opportunity for uncomfortable revelations to the market (that the new guys can blame on the old guys).
     
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  6. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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    So, some more info on its origins. The roadmap is for SIP, which is for commercial integration of new CPUs, which does lag, slightly, from consumer releases. So those dates may be up to 6 months later, or a quarter later, than what consumers will see. It was presented to Dell and was leaked anonymously after the presentation.

    Not necessarily. As I just pointed out, it was presented to Dell, an OEM, for commercial products. That means detailing where they have come from last year does make a little sense, that way to show how long the life span is for each product sold to commercial purchasers.

    And, as mentioned, it is rumored to have been decently recent. Intel refused to comment on it either way. And Intel may have thought or believed they figured it out when the statement was made and never updated the statement.

    This also gives weight to the rumor that Samsung will be producing Intel cards on 7nm Samsung process. They do show an integrated 10nm iGP, but that would not be nearly able to do a large die dedicated card, especially since they don't have large die CPUs listed.

    Just some thoughts. Another thought is if Intel misses getting 7nm worked out by 2022-23, they may be forced to go fabless. That would mean they would have to rely on TSMC or Samsung. Now, that is a scary thought, only due to further fab consolidation. But that is too far out to predict! Also, EUV lithography WILL be available for them by then, so if they get the cobalt integration figured out, they will be right on track. Just 10nm, without EUV, seems to be DOA.
     
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  7. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    I really hope Intel delivers desktop / laptop 10nm CPU's that are truly a performance jump ahead, vs matching 14nm+++ features and performance.

    It also seems that the new Intel iGPU technology only comes on the 10nm ULV CPU's coming end of the year, as the 14nm Desktop / Laptop CPU's still have the current poor performing onboard iGPU's - maybe another reason why the KF / F CPU's are arriving in force - most have no need for the iGPU on high performance desktop / laptop's that have dGPU's - it took Intel far too long to figure this out.

    The low cost Ryzen APU's with onboard GPU far outpace the Intel highest performance CPU's in gaming FPS, with the 9900k + onboard iGPU being almost unusable:
    http://forum.notebookreview.com/thr...-lake-cpus-z390.811225/page-149#post-10900296

    No matter what Intel finally delivers for 10nm, 2x more than hardly anything isn't enough to make a dent in the bottom line or increase market share back from AMD for 2019 / 2020.

    Hopefully AMD will be wise and take this opportunity to build bridges with vendors to deliver more laptops and desktops with Ryzen CPU's + Radeon GPU's.

    We need a strong competitor to Intel for progress to pick up again - continue to pickup as from AMD's Ryzen push - and hopefully Intel will catch up down the road.

    The Intel Datacenter sales drop-off a cliff seems doubly large to me. Is the market really saturated at such a high level, or are customers holding on to 14nm technology that is already dated for longer than the usual upgrade cycle - waiting for Intel to deliver on 10nm (7nm?) and AMD's 7nm DC solutions that promise real performance and cost improvements - instead of wasting more investment in 14nm silicon with architecture security vulnerabilities?

    If 10nm CPU's don't get rid of the 14nm security vulnerabilities or the accompanying performance hits the DC's have been suffering, DC customers are going to have a good reason to jump ship to AMD that has fewer vulnerabilities and less of a performance hit mitigating them. If performance alone won't make DC customers jump ship from Intel, then AMD price + fewer vulnerabilities and fewer mitigation lodestones together might.

    Why Intel Is Slashing Its Sales Forecasts
    Bloomberg Technology
    Published on Apr 25, 2019
    Apr.25 -- Bloomberg's Nico Grant and Sarah Ponczek break down Intel Corp.'s first-quarter results on "Bloomberg Technology."


    If DC customers aren't buying, where is that "redirected 14nm production" going? As I've said before I've doubted this whole "Intel CPU shortage due to redirection to DC demand" tall tale.

    I think the numbers from Intel are showing there is simply no demand in the DC or consumer realms - AMD is gaining market share and Intel has fewer placements of their products in a quarter after quarter market share decline.

    Sales shortfalls in a mature company like Intel with market and production dominance are due to customers not buying product, not because production can't keep up. Intel has dropped that story now, and is starting to give a glimpse of the true situation, customers aren't buying product.

    What is going to happen when reality is no longer obscured and the truth comes out?
    d7suf5lk89u21.jpg
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2019
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  8. Talon

    Talon Notebook Virtuoso

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    I agree to a point, the iGPU is largely useless and Intel could have slashed it earlier it it meant they could increase yields or or chips that were able to be sold. That said I do like having that iGPU in there in case the day should come I need to rely on it to get back into my desktop. In the case of dGPU failure or in the brief time in between old and new GPUs it's nice having a way to still use my desktop. Though this is still a rare use case.
     
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  9. bennyg

    bennyg Notebook Virtuoso

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    I think 110% of enthusiasts would say, for that die space gimme 4 more cores instead, I'll just grab some cheap htpc grade card from ebay for display outs.
     
  10. Talon

    Talon Notebook Virtuoso

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    I agree. But they have to give us those cores lol.
     
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