Intel kills off the 10nm process

Discussion in 'Hardware Components and Aftermarket Upgrades' started by hmscott, Oct 22, 2018.

  1. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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  2. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Intel's 10nm Desktop CPU's are the worst kind of rumor: Intel continually failing to deliver, with Intel always promising that 10nm Desktop CPU's are about 2 years out on the distant horizon.

    I've long ago given up on Intel ever delivering on 10nm Desktop CPU's. And, given Intel's legacy of failure with 10nm, I wouldn't be surprised if Intel's 7nm continues Intel's tradition of process delivery failures.

    IMHO, it's only a matter of time before Intel giving up on 10nm desktop CPU's rumor becomes a reality.
     
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  3. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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    You're welcome to believe whatever you want. No need to keep showing your bias.

    When AMD kept promising the moon and delivering dung for a decade I didn't hear a peep out of you. :rolleyes:
     
  4. TANWare

    TANWare Just This Side of Senile, I think. Super Moderator

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    There in lies the problem, for a decade or so we got to hear about the supposed dung AMD was offering. Now for a period of time we get to hear about Intel's dung.
     
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  5. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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    Of course.

    And I don't mind Intel being held responsible where it's warranted. ;)

    But bringing just rumors to the conversation without any replies Intel may still be simply spouting, for now, doesn't advance this topic either. :)

     
  6. ole!!!

    ole!!! Notebook Prophet

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    did you see the review on tomshardware 9900ks? highly binned 5.2ghz 180w vs 9900k 5ghz at 200w. thats like almost 3 multiplier difference pretty amazing i must admit. i really thought they got nothing left to squeeze, now it'd be a terrible time to buy any KF/K CPU as all good silicon gone to KS.


    with intel's fab size, they might be able to pump out just enough 10nm (or 10nm+++ for that matter in next 1-2 yrs) CPUs for high end desktop just like the 8086k or 9900ks and call it "desktop cpu" and keep mainstream on 14nm+++ while waiting for 7nm.

    or they can just go back on their word and release 10nm NUC call it desktop to avoid lawsuit and thats it. in the end it is for their own business not to lose too much money so we'll see how they approach it.
     
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  7. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Intel has cost another company $9B due to Intel's failure to deliver on their 10nm foundry promises.

    Intel's 10 nm debacle claims another victim: Nokia. $9B+ plunge in market
    submitted 2 days ago by Long_on_AMD
    https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/dv7hay/intels_10_nm_debacle_claims_another_victim_nokia/

    "I hadn't noticed this until a friend who had invested in NOK, assuming that 5G would drive their stock price up, contacted me recently in some distress. Take a look at their stock chart over the last month. They held their Q3 earnings call on October 23rd, and the next morning, $6.3 billion of their market cap had vanished into thin air. The stock has gone lower since, and is now down $9.2B in market cap: $19.9B, compared to $28.7B the night before their earnings call. That's a pretty massive haircut.

    What was the problem? Well, their CEO didn't name names, but during the earnings call Q&A, he did admit "One supplier let us down". Later, analyst Robert Sanders stated: "I mean, you had this issue with ReefShark with Intel’s 10-nanometer process". You can read the entire earnings call transcript, here:

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/42...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

    and a good article on the whole mess is here:

    https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/nokia-made-a-bad-call-for-5g-chips-scrambles-to-rectify-situation

    Now, before anyone asks, Nokia is NOT the company mentioned by SemiAccurate [Ericsson]. That is yet another sorry victim. But the bottom line is that the destruction of capital among the former customers of Intel's custom foundry business has been massive.

    Intel promised the moon, and delivered only a broken 10 nm process. Some bailed in time; others continued to drink the cool-aid. Nokia is only the latest example; we may yet learn of others. Companies as large as Apple bet big on Intel 5G modems, and lost. What a mess...

    But it is the impact to Intel's own roadmaps that matters the most. AMD made a series of very bold bets starting in 2012, and those are now paying off big-time. But the idea that it would be Intel's turn to "lose the recipe", just when AMD roared back into performance leadership, is simply staggering. The future is bright!"

    NukeMagnet 27 points 1 day ago
    "Lmao even after losing 10B to intel these companies are afraid to speak their name. Intel is the Harvey Weinstein of companies, they just can't help but [ruin] everybody and when you catch them they send the Mossad after you"

    EverythingIsNorminal 3 points 1 day ago
    "Nokia is NOT the company mentioned by SemiAccurate.
    Did he say who the other company was or how do you know that?"

    UpNDownCan 1 point 17 hours ago
    "Yes, he has recently said Ericsson."

    I posted about this a long while back when it was public Apple that was screwed over by Intel for failing to deliver 5g 10nm, here is the article about Nokia for a refresher:

    Intel Custom Foundry’s 10nm meltdown is crushing a $20+B market cap tech giant
    Exclusive: This is the beginning of a far reaching story
    Jul 2, 2018 by Charlie Demerjian
    https://www.semiaccurate.com/2018/0...down-is-crushing-a-20b-market-cap-tech-giant/

    Update to Intel Custom Foundry 10nm customer meltdown
    Not one but two additional confirmations of our article
    Aug 30, 2018 by Charlie Demerjian
    https://www.semiaccurate.com/2018/08/30/update-to-intel-custom-foundry-10nm-customer-meltdown/

    Glad it wasn't Ericsson, they had a Plan B probably a Plan C and D too, as they are pretty awesome. But Intel's failure also cost Ericsson time and money.

    And, here's the Reddit thread about this from back then, and some did realize it was Nokia at that time:

    Intel Custom Foundry’s 10nm meltdown is crushing a $20+B market cap tech giant
    submitted 1 year ago by Thierr
    https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/..._custom_foundrys_10nm_meltdown_is_crushing_a/

    Nokia, Apple, and Ericsson recovered, but are still stunted from that reliance on Intel. My recommendation: stop buying Intel now.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2019
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  8. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    I've debated whether to post this 7nm EUV inside look at Intel's FAB because I don't want to get people's hopes up. I've posted similar coverage of 10nm in the past and nothing has come of it for us enthusiasts.

    Hopefully Intel will deliver on 7nm EUV for high performance CPU's with at least as much performance as their current 14nm CPU's.

    Be sure to watch all the way through to the end where he summarizes what is holding Intel back from shipping 7nm. It sounds to me to be similar to what held back Intel from 10nm, and he says in the end that if Intel can't get EUV to work - Intel is working on a new solution, which isn't ready to test, let alone produce CPU's. Then you will see why I hesitated posting this...essentially it amounts to Intel spending mass amounts of capital and getting little in return, similar to the route 10nm has taken.

    I enjoyed watching this, even if it doesn't amount to anything, it's still interesting to see:

    EUV: Lasers, plasma, and the sci-fi tech that will make chips faster | Upscaled
    Jan 1, 2020
    Engadget
    Microchips are one of the most complicated objects humanity has created, packing billions of transistors into a chip only a few centimeters across. These transistors keep getting smaller and more efficient, and the current process to make chips is already astounding, requiring dozens of steps, fantastically complicated machines, and atomic-scale precision. But the current state of the art has reached its physical limits. The structures on a chip are now smaller than the wavelength of light used to make them, and any more progress will require a big change. That change is EUV, a radically new way of making chips that uses super high energy UV light created from a complex process involving plasma and lasers. EUV will enable our devices to keep getting smaller, faster, and more efficient, but where the current process to make chips already feels like sc9i-fi technology, EUV feels like magic.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2020
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  9. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    2020 is due or die for Intel 10nm? No? How about 2021??

    Will Intel push through and deliver desktop 10nm CPU's at all, ever??

    Will 10nm new architecture CPU's be devoid of the security issues and resulting load of firmware / OS mitigations? That alone might sell 10nm desktop CPU's even if it's not as fast as the top 14nm parts.

    10nm Intel on Desktop in 2021 | Whispers of Alder Lake
    Jan 12, 2020
    Moore's Law Is Dead
    Alder Lake stands to be Intel's last chance to not have a woeful 2021. Fingers crossed...
    1) 0:07 Intro to Intel's Situation
    2) 4:00 Alder Lake
    3) 9:22 Ice Lake & Cooper Lake Server
    4) 14:18 Closing Thoughts
     
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