Intel kills off the 10nm process

Discussion in 'Hardware Components and Aftermarket Upgrades' started by hmscott, Oct 22, 2018.

  1. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Intel may not have "officially" killed 10nm, but given the years of constant "no show" for 10nm, Intel's 10nm desktop CPU's are more a fable and a fantasy than a reality

    Intel's 10nm desktop CPU simply doesn't exist, except as a mirage on the horizon that has never and may never materialize.

    Intel 10nm CPU's - Is It Ever Going To Happen?

    Tech Showdown
    Published on Apr 6, 2019
    Today we are talking about Intel's 10nm Ice Lake CPU's and 14nm Comet Lake CPU's which will both be coming out in 2019.


    TSMC Completes Design of 5nm EUV Process Node
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
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  2. TANWare

    TANWare Just This Side of Senile, I think. Super Moderator

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    I think it goes without saying that if Zen2 is anywhere near the rumors Intel is in trouble. Some thought 12nm would be that breaking point, I knew it wouldn't be. Unless some miracle happens where 10nm just starts working I doubt that will be a save grace for them either.

    They really need 5nm and a core change too. Just having a faster and more efficient 8 or 10 core will not be enough at some point.
     
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  3. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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    If Zen didn't approach the rumors for me, I am not holding my breath for Zen2 to do so either.

    It is frustrating that Intel doesn't offer us new and shiny toys to brag about, but as far as performance/productivity, Intel is still in the lead.

    Particularly in mobile and enterprise/data centers, but also continues to do so for my workflows.

    I'm thankful for AMD's constant pressure on Intel, but comparing platforms with an eye on productivity (mine), I don't think Intel is sweating too much yet.

    I don't think a certain 'X' nm platform is a requirement, let alone a core change is a requirement too...

    If they continue to be faster and more efficient than the competition, they're still the better option when all else, including compatibility, is concerned.

     
  4. TANWare

    TANWare Just This Side of Senile, I think. Super Moderator

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    That is the concern. If Zen2 rumors are true then Intel will not only be matched by but well exceeded by Zen2. As it is Zen at 12nm has a good showing against Intel's enterprise/data center. For certain video productivity and other things TR is a killer system. Other than gaming Intel does not have the superior performance it used too.

    Compatibility, how about a new Intel CPU needs a different main board for each generation, sometimes even within that generation, for chipset and/or other issues?
     
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  5. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    "It's not dead yet!! 10nm Desktop CPU's 2022 FTW!!" - Intel (in their dreams...)

    Intel's 10nm desktop CPU's may not be canceled officially, but there is no solid release date as to when 10nm desktop CPU's will ship, or be declared officially alive - or dead.

    Whatever state Intel's 10nm desktop (enterprise?) CPU's really are, these new leaks of rumored releases through 2021 don't include Intel's 10nm desktop CPU's - delayed again, or DOA?

    Intel's 10nm desktop CPU's may not be here until 2022(?!). :(

    Roadmap shows that in 2021 Intel still makes desktop CPUs at 14nm
    A roadmap that comes from Intel shows that the manufacturer will still make desktop CPUs at 14nm in 2021. Variants made at 10nm are not listed on the relevant roadmap. The first 10nm laptop processors will be in a limited edition this year.
    https://tweakers.net/nieuws/151984/...l-in-2021-nog-desktop-cpus-op-14nm-maakt.html

    "Tweakers has received two roadmaps from an anonymous tipster with introductions from Intel between 2018 and 2021. The roadmaps come from an internal Dell presentation about products that will be released this year and next year. Parts of the roadmap correspond to information that Intel itself has already announced. There is also new information on it. It is not clear how old the roadmaps themselves are. Maybe they were already prepared last year.

    The roadmaps mainly describe laptop processors, but desktop processors are also referred to as S-series. According to the roadmap, Intel this year will only present the Coffee Lake Refresh models that were announced on Tuesday . Comet Lake will follow in early 2020 as successor to Coffee Lake. This again involves 14nm processors, but there are also variants with ten cores. Earlier this month a roadmap was published by a motherboard manufacturer that also lists Comet Lake. There have been rumors about the arrival of ten cores to the consumer platform.
    [​IMG]
    Comet Lake was to be succeeded by Rocket Lake in the second quarter of 2021. According to the roadmap the number of cores and the production process do not change compared to Comet Lake, so it would again be 14nm processors with a maximum of ten cores. Never before has information been revealed about the Rocket Lake generation. The name can be seen for the first time on this roadmap.

    So there are no 10nm desktop processors on the Intel roadmap for the next two years, but it is not certain whether Intel is really not working on it.

    The relevant roadmap is related to the Stable Image Platform Program from Intel. Hardware appears for a long time within that program. Perhaps there is another roadmap for processors that do not fall within this program.

    New laptop processors are also on the SIPP roadmap. Comet Lake H, a generation of 14nm laptop processors with up to ten cores, was due to arrive in early 2020. Comet Lake U is also on the roadmap, as a successor to Kaby Lake U. The new models would have a maximum of six cores and would again be made at 14nm. The SIPP roadmap mentions 10nm laptop processors only from 2021.

    Ice Lake U and Tiger Lake U: 10nm laptop processors
    Another roadmap shows Intel's laptop processors from 2018 to 2020. It states that in the second quarter of 2019 the first 10nm laptop processors will be released in a limited edition. This includes Ice Lake U, which are efficient dualcores with HyperThreading. The Ice Lake U generation has been on Intel's website for a long time and has been in a test phase since the third quarter of 2017. At the end of last year , Intel also indicated that Ice Lake is the first generation of 10nm processors to be released.

    Tiger Lake U and Y will follow in the second quarter of 2020. These are efficient quadcores made at 10nm and the successors of the Kaby Lake generation. The Y versions are the models with a tdp of 5W. 10nm versions of Powerful Core H processors are not on the roadmap. Rocket Lake is mentioned. That would be processors with a maximum of six cores made at 14nm, but with a 10nm gpu. Rocket Lake U is also on the SIPP roadmap, but then also with a 14nm gpu. Maybe there will be different versions or Intel is not sure yet about which process is used for the gpu."
    [​IMG]

    Maybe Intel simply forgot to add the 10nm desktop parts to the presentation? :rolleyes:

    In this case no news is not good news, but is it bad news? IMHO, Intel is going eternally push out 10nm until Intel's 7nm EUV is up and running, and then officially axe 10nm - leaving a smattering of ULV 10nm laptops out there for many to enjoy.
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
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  6. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    No 10nm Intel Desktop CPUs Until 2022 - Seriously!?!?
    Tech Showdown
    Published on Apr 25, 2019
    An Intel CPU road map has leaked and it is even more disappointing that you could possibly imagine.
     
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  7. TANWare

    TANWare Just This Side of Senile, I think. Super Moderator

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    Just one word, if true, Ouch.
     
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  8. tilleroftheearth

    tilleroftheearth Wisdom listens quietly...

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    This may or not be a non-issue when/if these actually come out. For all we know, these Intel slides have already been superseded internally. But it really doesn't matter.

    The process node or any other parameter isn't what is important to me or to anyone that cares about their end results: productivity. Manufacturers will/can only use what they have available and working, they can't sell fairy dust (well, fruity companies can...).

    What matters (only) is what performance they give over my current platforms, as always. What it's built with inside is not my biggest concern. After all, a state-of-the-art smartphone is still a toy vs. anything Intel offers me. :rolleyes:

    Just like the purported/theoretical superiority of TR, Zen and Zen x has failed to move me to a single purchase (that I did not return after testing), let alone a wholesale switch to the AMD world, for my workflows. Because the underlying building blocks mean nothing if the final output isn't actually more than what I'm currently using and has the same reliability, dependability, stability, and endurance too.

    Yeah, I know that all the building block details make a difference, somewhere. But that difference is only important when all else is equal or better too.

    So far, Intel is still firing on all cylinders as far as my compute needs show, just like MS is still the force to be reckoned with, no matter the popular opinions of the mass uninformed.

    Yeah, there are many examples where they've both miss-stepped, to be sure. But the point most seem to miss is how they have handled those missteps, given time. ;)
     
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  9. Vasudev

    Vasudev Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    14nm++++++ vs 7nm EUV. Single core perf. 14nnm wins; In multi-core perf, cost per $, easy cpu upgrade w/o buying new mobo,power efficiency etc... Ryzen wins
     
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  10. ajc9988

    ajc9988 Death by a thousand paper cuts

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    So, you are sticking with that? Really?

    I will repost what I did in the Ryzen vs Intel thread as I think it fairly and accurately addresses the leaked roadmap and Intel's future performance. With that, I want to point out that even if superseded, it is still NEWER than anything released to date, as it has new code names that were rumored but not confirmed.

    "I'm not an insider, so cannot guarantee anything. But, the limited 10nm low power dual core mobiles, then the replacement a year later, but no H or G actually does make sense. Also, Cascade and Cooper lake for HEDT and Server have long been known to be 14nm. Seems they are finally porting the Ice Lake/Sunny Cove back to 14nm.

    With that said, and what @tilleroftheearth isn't saying, is 14nm is near its limits. The microarch will get better, meaning Comet Lake and beyond will have increases in single threaded performance due to improved IPC from architecture improvements. All that means is that Intel won't get the process improvements. So it does NOT mean Intel will not have more to get out of the tank, just means that the hopes of lower power is lost.

    In fact, prior roadmaps showing Intel's release for the 9900K were only off by within two quarters on the products, depending which roadmap you looked at (the first released one turned out more accurate on that, whereas the second, later released one must have been an earlier version because it had the 9900K coming in Q1 of 2019, rather than late Q3 to Q4, like the first one).

    If this one is anywhere near as accurate as those previously published, Intel has a process node problem."
     
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