All about Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, Digital Transformation

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Dr. AMK, Jan 7, 2018.

  1. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Twitter CEO: Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years
    Twitcoin
    By Chaim Gartenberg@cgartenberg Mar 21, 2018, 1:02pm EDT
    https://www.coindesk.com/twitter-ceo-jack-dorsey-bitcoin-will-be-the-worlds-single-currency/

    "Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey apparently has big visions for bitcoin, commenting in a recent interview with The Times that he believes that the cryptocurrency will become the world’s single currency within 10 years.

    According to Dorsey, “The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin.” Dorsey went on to say that the transition would happen “probably over ten years, but it could go faster,” which seems like an extremely unrealistic projection, even considering cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise in popularity over the past few months.

    That Dorsey is a fan of bitcoin isn’t too surprising, though. In addition to serving as the CEO of Twitter, Dorsey is also the CEO of Square, which recently added the option to buy and sell Bitcoin directly from the Square Cash app. The company also released an illustrated children’s story touting the benefits of the digital currency. As for Dorsey himself, he’s gone on the record in an interview with The Verge’s own Lauren Goode about the benefits of bitcoin as a currency, describing it as the “next big unlock” for the world of finance. (Dorsey owns an unspecified amount of the cryptocurrency.)

    Interestingly, Dorsey was in London for the interview as part of a promotional tour for Square, where The Times reports that he declined to take any questions about Twitter. Apparently, the issues of fixing his other company’s toxic culture, problems of abuse, andhateful conduct are less interesting than pretending to reinvent the world’s financial system."

    THERE ARE 80 COMMENTS:

    Jhala_Ashish
    I call ********. But the article already did that so..
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 1:06 PM

    Black Dude
    The man can barely run his own website well.
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 5:43 PM

    Ol1BoT
    It won’t happen.
    If the Euro has taught as anything, monetary unions are terrible for non-prosperous countries.
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 7:24 PM

    Sw4mq
    A lot of startups have been creating their own coins in order to raise capital and be more vertically integrated. Fiat money might be phased out some day, but altcoins will always be a thing (as they should). He has no idea what he’s talking about.
    Posted on Mar 22, 2018 | 11:59 AM

    beneaththesound
    Yeah, not sure what Dorsey’s been smoking…
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 1:08 PM

    Sprawlie
    no it wont. and he has no clue what he’s talking about if he thinks that, sounds more like he’s got an agenda and wants it to succeed. look for Twitter (or affiliates to start looking into crypto currecny for their online use, and the desire to make it mainstream)
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 1:12 PM

    Javiieer
    mhmm ok so basically he invested in Bitcoin and now is trying to get its value to rise?
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 1:22 PM

    Maclovio Williams, Esq.
    Totally not suspicious at all.
    Posted on Mar 21, 2018 | 3:26 PM
     
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  2. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Inside the Bizarre Upside-Down Bankruptcy of Mt. GOX
    The collapsed bitcoin exchange now weirdly has more assets than liabilities
    By Adrianne Jeffries@adrjeffries Mar 22, 2018, 10:30am EDT
    https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/22/17151430/bankruptcy-mt-gox-liabilities-bitcoin
    [​IMG]
    "Every six months for the past four years, some number of former customers of the defunct Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange have gathered in a small room in a Tokyo courthouse to hear an update from Nobuaki Kobayashi, the stoic Japanese attorney appointed as the trustee for the case.
    The number of creditors attending the meeting has dwindled over time: the first one reportedly drew more than 100 people, but the most recent one earlier this month drew fewer than 30, according to the estimates of one attendee.

    That does not mean the Mt. Gox case has gotten any less strange — just the opposite. By definition, bankruptcy occurs when an entity cannot pay its debts. But as of this writing, Mt. Gox has enough assets to pay off its claims with more than $1.4 billion worth of bitcoins left over. The trouble is figuring out what to do with them.

    “This is absolutely unprecedented in Japanese law,” says Andy Pag, who got a group of creditors together under the name Mt. Gox Legal and hired an attorney to advocate for better terms. “There’s never been a bankruptcy like this in Japan or probably anywhere in the world.”

    Mt. Gox was started in 2010 by Jed McCaleb, a serial entrepreneur who is now the founder of the cryptocurrency-inspired financial services platform Stellar. The domain name was repurposed from a previous project, Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange, which was a platform for trading the playing cards. At the time, there were few options for buying and selling bitcoin, and the exchange grew fast. It got too big for McCaleb, who sold it to Mark Karpelès, a French entrepreneur who had moved to Japan in 2009.

    Mt. Gox handled an estimated 70 percent of all bitcoin transactions going into 2014, but the site’s rise was never smooth. It suffered hacks, outages, a run-in with the US government, and a $75 million lawsuit. Karpelès’ inability to manage a bizarre sense of priorities became legendary. (“He invested quite a large amount of money in an oven that was specifically built to cook quiche,” according to one former employee.)

    In early 2014, customers started to complain that they had requested withdrawals from Mt. Gox but never received the money. Then, the site shut off all withdrawals. Its Twitter account disappeared. Behind the scenes, Karpelès had discovered that an attacker hadslowly been draining all of Mt. Gox’s bitcoins without being noticed. The company filed for bankruptcy in February 2014, citing $64 million in liabilities.

    Customers were in shock. “When MtGox was operational, I generally had a great experience with the site,” one Minneapolis-based creditor said in an email. “Until close to the end it was, by far, the most functional and trustworthy Bitcoin exchange that existed. I had a lot of faith in the site.”

    At first, Mt. Gox planned to restructure the business in a process called civil rehabilitation, but in April 2014, it changed its plans and asked the court for permission to liquidate, which was granted. Kobayashi was appointed trustee, and he set about tracking down all of Mt. Gox’s assets as well as soliciting claims from customers and other creditors. He took over the Mt. Gox website, which is now used to post updates on the bankruptcy. The first creditors’ meeting was held in July 2014.

    Kobayashi was flooded with claims from Mt. Gox users, which he reviewed for legitimacy. On May 25th, 2016, he announced the completion of the review process. There are 24,750 approved claims totaling ‎roughly ¥‎45 billion ($432 million), almost all of them from former Mt. Gox customers. The trustee priced the bitcoins at their 2014 value of $483, a choice that upset many creditors since the price of a bitcoin is now roughly 18 times that. Some acknowledge that this price lock-in could prove beneficial if the price of bitcoin crashes before the bankruptcy is concluded, but it’s still hard to watch the price of a bitcoin skyrocket to $20,000 when you know yours is stuck at $483.

    For these former customers, the bankruptcy proceedings have been agonizingly slow. Some creditors sold their claims at a discount, preferring to cash out rather than wait for the saga to play out.

    “There has been so little progress and so little information from the bankruptcy proceedings that it has seemed that we would be left in limbo, forever waiting to see if we will get any repayment for our lost coins,” says the Minneapolis creditor. “Every six months I get my hopes up that the Trustee will announce at the next creditors’ meeting some resolution to the case, and every six months I’m disappointed by the scant information given at the meeting and the lack of progress.”

    It’s not quite true that Mt. Gox’s upside-down bankruptcy is unprecedented.

    Melissa B. Jacoby, a bankruptcy law scholar and professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, pointed to a handful of cases where assets equaled or exceeded claims. In the 1990s, the New Valley Corporation of New Jersey went into bankruptcy and auctioned off Western Union. There was a bidding war, and Western Union eventually went for $1.153 billion, enough to pay creditors back in full.

    In 2011, Nortel Networks, a Canadian telecommunications and networking provider whose fortunes declined after the dot-com bubble burst, auctioned off a patent portfolio that was estimated to be worth $900 million but ended up selling for $4.5 billion. In January 2018, the court finally approved a plan to pay creditors back.

    “It is indeed rare for bankruptcy companies to be solvent, but the bankruptcy process is intended to maintain and enhance value relative to what might have happened outside of bankruptcy,” Jacoby said in an email.

    The Mt. Gox case is expected to stretch on for years. While they wait for news, creditors talk on private forums like the one run by Mt. Gox Legal and the subreddit r/mtgoxinsolvency. There are two major complaints. The first is that Japanese bankruptcy law says that any surplus will be redistributed to Mt. Gox’s other shareholders including Karpelès, who owns 88 percent of the company. The second is the question of whether creditors will be repaid in bitcoin or fiat currency, which the trustee is still considering.

    Much of the chatter revolves around the motives of the trustee. Earlier this month, creditors grew angry when they found out Kobayashi had sold, with the approval of the court, roughly 35,841 BTC for ¥38 billion, or about $360 million, between December and February, accusing him of driving down the price through the sell-off. (As the trustee, Kobayashi is tasked with managing Mt. Gox’s assets during the bankruptcy in order to maximize and protect value for creditors. He decided it would be prudent to sell some of the coins and lock in the fiat value while the price was high.

    Kobayashi sold the coins through a private offering and took care to structure the sale to minimize the impact on the market price, he told creditors. (It is undecided whether the cash will be disbursed to creditors immediately or held until the case is over.) And yet, other creditors appreciate his caution. “Everybody is criticizing him. Everyone is calling him a crook,” says Jerry Folta, one of the creditors. “In the meantime, I think he’s just doing his job.”

    The moment when Mt. Gox’s bankruptcy flipped upside down came in 2017 as the price started to climb past $2,000. At the September creditors’ meeting, Kobayashi explained that assets in excess of the claims would go to the shareholders, including Karpelès.

    That spurred Pag to start Mt. Gox Legal, which has raised about $200,000 from around 900 creditors to hire its own attorney. The group is now trying to move the case out of bankruptcy and back into civil rehabilitation, which would allow the surplus coins to be redistributed to creditors instead of Karpelès and the shareholders, Pag says.

    “This whole price rise has galvanized creditors that were fairly dormant over the last four years,” Pag says. “If we act together we can put the right sort of pressure to bear.”

    There are at least two other groups of activist creditors. Kolin Burges, who had 311 bitcoins at Mt. Gox when it shut down, hired a lawyer and has been providing updates on the bankruptcy at mtgoxprotest.com and maintains a forum for creditors here. Another group of anonymous creditors provides updates at mtgox-creditors.com.

    Karpelès has written in favor of moving the case to civil rehabilitation. This makes sense since he would likely be besieged by lawsuits if the surplus were given to him. He wrote in an email that “a lot of work remains for the bankruptcy to enter civil rehabilitation and successfully distribute assets, and I intend to help as much as I can.”

    “I only hope for the best resolution, which means as much assets possible distributed as soon as possible, for the benefit of all creditors,” he said.

    When Mt. Gox collapsed, there was the danger that it could have an outsize effect on the bitcoin economy. A leaked document from Mt. Gox labeled “Crisis Strategy Draft” and published by the blogger Ryan Selkis read, “The reality is that MtGox can go bankrupt at any moment, and certainly deserves to as a company. However, with Bitcoin/crypto just recently gaining acceptance in the public eye, the likely damage in public perception to this class of technology could put it back 5~10 years, and cause governments to react swiftly and harshly. At the risk of appearing hyperbolic, this could be the end of Bitcoin, at least for most of the public.”

    Obviously, that didn’t happen. The Mt. Gox collapse doesn’t seem to have deterred even its victims from buying bitcoin. All the creditors I spoke to told me that they had continued to invest in the cryptocurrency after the site shut down.

    “I don’t have regrets,” one creditor, who asked to be identified only by his last name, Bartels, told me in an email. “When you play with fire (which MtGox was from mid 2013 to collapse) sometimes you get burned.” “It’s an adventure,” Folta told me. “I’m emotionally disconnected from it.”

    Mt. Gox wasn’t the first exchange to suffer a massive theft, and it wasn’t the last. In 2016, 120,000 bitcoins worth $72 million at the time were stolen from the Hong Kong exchange Bitfinex. In January, 500 million tokens of a cryptocurrency NEM worth $400 million were stolen from Japan-based Coincheck. Mt. Gox isn’t even the only exchange to file for bankruptcy: in December 2017, South Korea-based Youbit did so after a hacker stole a fifth of its holdings.
    “I think we still are in the early days of bitcoin,” Bartels said. “I am sure there will be stubborn or lazy people and businesses repeating past mistakes, and I am also sure thorough, careful people and businesses will find new mistakes to make.”"
     
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  3. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Twitter Bans Crypto Ads Causing Bitcoin to Fall
    Published on Mar 26, 2018
     
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  4. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Why Bitcoin Is Not Working
     
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  5. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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  6. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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  7. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    New York power companies can now charge Bitcoin miners more
    With few community benefits, power authorities are cracking down.
    MEGAN GEUSS - 3/16/2018, 11:51 AM
    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy...companies-can-now-charge-bitcoin-miners-more/

    "On Wednesday, the New York State Public Service Commission (PSC) ruled that municipal power companies could charge higher electricity rates to cryptocurrency miners who try to benefit from the state's abundance of cheap hydroelectric power."
    Over the years, Bitcoin's soaring price has drawn entrepreneurs to mining. Bitcoin mining enterprises have become massive endeavors, consuming megawatts of power on some grids. To minimize the cost of that considerable power draw, mining companies have tried to site their operations in towns with cheap electricity, both in the US and around the world. In the US, regions with the cheapest energy tend to be small towns with hydroelectric power. (Politico recently wrote extensively about the Bitcoin mining boom in Washington state's mid-Columbia valley, a hotspot for cheap hydro.)

    But mining booms in small US towns are not always met with approval. A group of 36 municipal power authorities in northern and western New York petitioned the PSC for permission to raise electricity rates for cryptocurrency miners because their excessive power use has been taxing very small local grids and causing rates to rise for other customers.

    The PSC responded on Wednesday that it would allow those local power companies to raise rates for cryptocurrency miners. The response noted that New York's local power companies, which are customer-owned and range in size from 1.5 MW to 122 MW, "acquire low-cost power, typically hydro, and distribute the power to customers at no profit." If a community consumes more than what has been acquired, cost increases are passed on to all customers.

    The PSC offered a truly staggering look at the electricity demand that cryptocurrency has created in the region, saying that in some communities cryptocurrency mining requires "thousands of timesmore electricity than an average residential customer would use" (emphasis PSC). The document continued:

    While such a significant amount of electricity usage might go unnoticed in large metropolitan areas, the sheer amount of electricity being used is leading to higher costs for customers in small communities because of a limited supply of low-cost hydropower. In Plattsburgh, for example, monthly bills for average residential customers increased nearly $10 in January because of the two cryptocurrency companies operating there.

    In another instance, the power demanded by cryptocurrency companies accounted for 33 percent of the local power company's load. In the Village of Akron, a cryptocurrency mining operation requested a 5 MW increase in electricity delivery. "If Akron were to comply with the request at existing rates, Akron’s annual average bulk power supply costs would have increased 54 percent with a direct impact on retail rates," New York's PSC wrote.

    Of course, cryptocurrency mining is hardly the first industry to arbitrage electricity prices to make some good's production more profitable. The practice is common in aluminum production, where the smelting process uses vast amounts of electricity to create aluminum metal from alumina. Not surprisingly, the Pacific Northwest and Upstate New York are both US regions where aluminum manufacture is common.

    But the New York PSC said that cryptocurrency mining should be treated differently, because a local community doesn't benefit from cryptocurrency mining like it does from, say, aluminum processing plants. Cryptocurrency mining results in few local jobs. It also doesn't require any new factories or facilities. "As a result, there is no traditional impediment for the customers to pull up stakes and move their equipment to another location," the PSC wrote. "The potential for sudden relocations would result in unpredictable electrical use fluctuations in the affected areas."

    Ultimately, the PSC decided that municipal power authorities will be allowed to increase rates for customers whose maximum demand exceeds 300kW or whose load density "exceeds 250kWh per square foot per year."

    Singling out a power-hungry industry for rate increases isn't without precedent. In Boulder County, Colorado, for example, marijuana growers are charged an extra $0.0216 per kWh because they use so much power to run grow lights, ventilation systems, and air conditioners for their plants.

    Correction: The point at which electricity is applied in the aluminum fabricating process has been clarified."
    Comments
     
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  8. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Block blocked: Google to banish cryptominers from Chrome Web Store
    1 in 9 plugin submissions broke the rules, ads giant complains
    By Iain Thomson 2 Apr 2018 at 23:27
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/04/02/google_chrome_cryptomining/

    "Google will throw cryptocurrency-mining extensions out of its Chrome Web Store after finding so many were badly behaved.

    From Monday, no more add-ons that churn out fun bucks will be added to the cyber-store's shelves, and by July, those listed in the code bazaar will be removed.

    The ads giant allowed plugins onto the browser's software souk if their sole purpose was crafting alt-coins, which are invariably based on blockchain technology, and netizens are made aware of these mining operations.

    Now the Mountain View biz is sick of it all: according to Google, "90 per cent of all extensions with mining scripts that developers have attempted to upload to Chrome Web Store have failed to comply with these policies, and have been either rejected or removed from the store."

    "Starting today, Chrome Web Store will no longer accept extensions that mine cryptocurrency," said Googler James Wagner, Chrome's extensions platform product manager.

    "Existing extensions that mine cryptocurrency will be delisted from the Chrome Web Store in late June. Extensions with blockchain-related purposes other than mining will continue to be permitted in the Web Store."

    Cynically minded folks will exhibit no surprise at an online advertising goliath canning crypto-mining, a non-advertising form of online revenue. However, alt-coin-generating scripts are getting a deserved bad rap. They hog CPU performance to pocket pennies, are neutralized by antivirus and ad blockers, and are often injected into webpages by hackers in so-called crypto-jacking attacks.

    They are arguably the internet's bête noire of the late 2010s, right behind Facebook. "
     
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  9. hmscott

    hmscott Notebook Nobel Laureate

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    Students: Duh, of course we're blowing our loan bucks on crypto coins
    Still a better investment than art school or avocado toast
    By Shaun Nichols in San Francisco 26 Mar 2018 at 23:14
    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/26/students_say_theyre_spending_loan_bucks_on_crypto_coins/

    "University students are opting to use their student loan money to invest in cryptocurrency, rather than school.

    This according to a survey this month from the Student Loan Report, which asked 1,000 college students in America if they had used their loan money to buy cryptocurrency, only to have 212 confirm.

    In other words, one in five current US college university students say they're spending their student loan cash (and future debt) on crypto-coins, in hopes the currency's value will jump and sort out their money issues.

    According to Student Loan Report, the money comes out of the portion of loan debt left over after tuition costs that then becomes designated for living expenses.

    "Sometimes, student debtors borrow more than they end up needing for that semester of classes," the site explains.

    "Once the borrower's college or university's financial aid office uses the necessary financial aid to pay for courses, they send a refund check to the borrower."

    According to Pew Research, 37 per cent of adults aged 18-29 have student loan debt, with the average borrower owing around $17,000.

    The survey comes as the US government is in the midst of measures aimed at reducing the risk associated with cryptocurrency investment. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a point of targeting initial coin offerings (ICOs) as particularly risky investments, due to their susceptibility to 'pump and dump' marketing schemes. The commission has in some cases stepped in to stop or even file charges against the operators of cryptocurrency offerings.

    In response, sites including Google, Facebook, and Twitter have moved to block ads for initial cryptocurrency offerings."

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    Last edited: Apr 2, 2018
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  10. Dr. AMK

    Dr. AMK The Strategist

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    I’ve simulated the bitcoin price for the whole 2018. You won’t believe the result!
    https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-sim...018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2
    Disclaimer: This is just for fun, my opinion and not investment advice. Do your due diligence, don’t do stupid things and don’t hold more USD than you can afford to lose.

    Disclaimer 2: Some of you have pointed out that there is no guarantee that the future returns will be like past returns; past performance doesn’t indicate future performance. I know. Have I already mentioned this is just for fun? Don’t take this that seriously; if I wanted to write rigorous science, I’d go and publish a paper, not a Medium post with gifs and memes. Relax! :)

    Anyway, in the particular case of Bitcoin, I believe it is sound money, while fiat money is not. So if you think sound and uncensorable money is important to enough people, that could be a reason for the future returns being similar to the past ones, until a majority of the population realizes Bitcoin is better money.

    Now that you’re here after that clickbaity headline, let’s play a little with some numbers.


    [​IMG]
    Don’t worry, this’ll be only a ~5 minute adventure.
    Here I’m doing a simple Monte Carlo simulation on the daily returns of the USD bitcoin price to try to know what will be its most likely price by the end of 2018. You can see the whole code used to create this in my GitHub.

    Daily returns? What’s that?
    The return is a computation of how much a price has varied from one observation to the next one. In this case, as we’re taking daily data, the returns will be daily. And how are they calculated? There are several forms. Here, the simplest one will be enough:
    [​IMG]

    In an ideal world, the daily returns of financial assets would come from a normal distribution, but the reality far from that, and the actual daily returns have fatter tails. What does this mean? It means that extreme events have a higher probability of happening than a normal distribution would predict, and the distributions are not alike, as you can see below.


    [​IMG]
    Here you can’t tell the difference between the tails but believe me, the ones from the returns distribution are fatter.
    Ok, but what is a Monte Carlo simulation?
    According to Wikipedia, Monte Carlo methods (or Monte Carlo experiments) are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

    Basically, in a Monte Carlo simulation in finance we assume that the future behavior of the price of an asset will be similar to its past behavior, and we generate a lot of random versions of that future, called random walks, similar to the past. That’s done taking random samples from the past and stacking them together to build each one of those random walks.


    [​IMG]
    The assumption that the future will be similar to the past is a daring one and it may not be true, but it’s all we have and I guess it’s better than nothing ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (source)
    A Monte Carlo simulation on the BTC/USD price during 2018
    To build each of the random walks in our simulation, we’ll take random samples from the daily returns from 2010 to today, add one to each one of the samples and and multiply them cumulatively until Dec 31, 2018. Then we multiply the current price of bitcoin times the values of the random walk to get the simulated future prices. This will be done a lot of times (100,000 in this case) and at the end of the year we will see the distribution of final price for each random walk.

    Random walks
    The first 200 random walks look like this:


    [​IMG]
    Linear plot of 200 of the 100,000 random walks
    This upper plot tells us little information, as the exponential growth of some of the random walks made the y-scale of the plot big, while the majority of the random walks ended orders of magnitude below that blue random walk. Here, a logarithmic scale for the vertical axis would help us see what’s going on better:


    [​IMG]
    Logarithmic plot of the 200 random walks shown before
    Final price distributions
    As we can see, the ending price for most of the random walks is between $10K and $100K. But only with the plot from above we can’t say much more than that. Now it’d be nice to see a histogram showing the distribution of the final prices for all of the 100,000 random walks we’ve generated before. This is it:


    [​IMG]
    Again, we’re facing the same problem as before, and we can’t draw any kind of conclusions from that plot. The solution is the same: plotting the data using a logarithmic scale for the horizontal axis. This way, the plot looks much better:


    [​IMG]
    It looks like the most likely price is somewhere between $24K and $90K. To find that price more precisely, we could do several things. One of them is simply calculating the 50% percentile of the distribution of final prices: $ 58843. Another one is estimating the probability density function with Kernel Density Estimation and finding the price corresponding to the maximum of that function. The result of this is shown below:


    [​IMG]
    As you see, the estimations for the most likely price are similar, and both above $50K.

    It’s important to note that this estimation doesn’t have to be taken to the letter and it’s better used as a way to find confidence intervals on where the future distribution where be. In this case an 80% confidence interval for the price of bitcoin would be between $13,200 and $271,277. Another way to look at this is that the chance that the price at the end of the year will be below 13,200 is the same as that of it being above $271,277 (if the price moves in the future similarly to how it did the past).

    What else?

    Now that we have the KDE density function, we could, for example, compute the probability that the price by the end of the year will be below a certain level.

    In particular, if we want to calculate the probability that that price will be equal or lower than today’s (Jan 20th 2018), we’d just have to integrate the shadowed area in the following plot:


    [​IMG]
    And what’s that probability? 9.84%.


    [​IMG]
    ‘I never thought that probability was so low!’, his last words were.




    Bonus tip
    Yeah, I know. Nothing can keep going up forever, and the fact that it did in the past doesn’t mean it’ll do in the future. Below there’s a chart of another thingthat has also gone up a lot in the past.


    [​IMG]
    The monetary base is the most liquid part of USA money supply. It includes notes, coinage and bank deposits.
    And you, do you believe the USA can keep printing money out of thin air forever?
     
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